:Product: 1113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Nov 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/1331Z from Region 3484 (S15W76). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (14 Nov) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1205 km/s at 13/0241Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 592 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Nov, 16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Nov). III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov Class M 25/20/15 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Nov 134 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 132/126/122 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-010/012-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20