:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 15 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/2305Z from Region 3485 (S18W79). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 15/1800Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 14/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1536Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    15/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 119
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 120/118/116
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10