:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0433Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 16/1308Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/2353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/0603Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet levels on
day two (18 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    15/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 118
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 118/120/122
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  008/008-005/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/40
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/30