:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1010Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 16/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 120
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/005-012/015-016/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/30/30