:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/2234Z from Region 3490 (N18E69). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 19/0805Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at
19/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0411Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 140
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  019/020-007/010-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/20
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/30