:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0903Z from Region 3492 (N18E64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov,
23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 20/0140Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
20/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/0645Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22
Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 157
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 160/165/170
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/012-012/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/30/15