:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/1352Z from Region 3492 (N18E50). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov,
24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 21/2044Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 21/0647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
21/0648Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Nov, 23 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 172
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 175/177/180
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/014-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/20