:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/0628Z from Region 3492 (N18E36). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 22/0209Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 22/0312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 21/2115Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (23 Nov, 25 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 190
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 190/190/185
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  011/012-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20