:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0338Z. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 22/2323Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 709 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (25 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 194
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 195/195/195
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  017/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  007/005-007/010-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/45
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/60