:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0933Z from Region 3499 (S17W09). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 418 km/s at 24/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
24/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1852Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 178
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  007/010-015/020-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/45/30
Minor Storm           05/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/60/30