:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/2219Z from Region 3490 (N20W03). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov,
28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 25/2054Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 25/0830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 25/0827Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 176
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  023/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  018/025-015/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/30/20