:Product: 1126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0743Z from Region 3490 (N22W27). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov,
29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 25/2152Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0040Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 180
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  018/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10