:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/1852Z from Region 3500 (S20E08). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov,
30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2128Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1834Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (29 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 187
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 185/182/182
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov   NA/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  005/006-008/010-024/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/45