:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/2241Z from Region 3500 (S18W18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 30/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/0212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 394 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 167
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 166/162/158
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  037/054-018/022-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/15
Minor Storm           30/25/05
Major-severe storm    40/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    60/20/20