:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0439Z from Region 3502 (N14W81). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 01/1443Z. Total IMF
reached 28 nT at 01/1022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 01/1020Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec) and unsettled to major storm levels
on day three (04 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 162
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 162/158/155
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  039/058
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  022/028-008/010-024/033

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/35
Minor Storm           30/05/30
Major-severe storm    15/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/30