:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0644Z from Region 3513 (N19E67). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 05/1616Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/0103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 142
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05