:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
06/0541Z from Region 3513 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 06/0815Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/0228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0719Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 897 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 130
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05