:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
08/2307Z from Region 3511 (S22W45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/1333Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 128
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 128/125/120
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  005/005-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10