:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/0353Z from Region 3511 (S23W71). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (11 Dec,
12 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 464 km/s at 10/0708Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec, 13 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    55/55/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 127
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 125/120/118
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  011/012-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20