:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
12/0338Z from Region 3514 (N10W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 12/0611Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 12/1314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/1200Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 Dec, 15 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 126
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 124/122/122
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  010/012-007/008-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20