:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1515Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec,
16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 13/0444Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/0841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0656Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    30/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 135
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  007/008-013/018-019/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor Storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/35/30