:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
14/1702Z from Region 3514 (N05W50). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 14/0027Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/0117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/0058Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16
Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    55/55/40
Class X    25/25/15
Proton     35/35/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 155
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  013/020-019/022-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           15/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/20