:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/0914Z from Region 3530 (N08E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec,
26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/1113Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1300Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1065 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 174
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 172/168/165
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10