:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/1118Z from Region 3529 (S21W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec,
27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 24/1847Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/0346Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 228 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 183
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 180/170/165
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/30