:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0317Z from Region 3529 (S20W62). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Peak solar wind
speed was not available due to the unreliability of the real time solar
wind source. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1105Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1125Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 149
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  013/015-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20