:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1058Z from Region 3533 (N14W38). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Maximum solar wind
speed was not available given unreliable observations from the real time
solar wind source. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 28/1617Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 147
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20