:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
29/0754Z from Region 3533 (N14W52). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 488 km/s at 28/2229Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/1331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0605Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 143
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 142/140/136
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  009/010-007/010-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/40
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/50