:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1520Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 29/2145Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/1027Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 299 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 140
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  009/010-011/015-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/30