:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
07/0756Z from Region 3536 (N05W20). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 489 km/s at 07/0012Z, although that value is suspect. 
Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level
of 2 pfu at 07/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 167
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  007/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/20
Major-severe storm    40/10/15