:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0330Z from Region 3541 (S20W77). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan,
19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 16/0636Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/0627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/2326Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 180
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 180/170/165
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10