:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0153Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 19/0248Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0344Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan,
21 Jan, 22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 157
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/008-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25