:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
08/1312Z from Region 3576 (S16E17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (09 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 661 km/s at 08/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1120Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (09 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    60/45/45
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 185
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 180/175/175
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/015-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/50/25