:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
10/0354Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 09/2147Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1003Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 187 pfu at 09/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb). Protons are expected to
cross threshold on day one (11 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold
on day two (12 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three
(13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/50/25
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 194
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 198/198/195
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-012/018-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/60