:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
21/2307Z from Region 3590 (N17E38). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2339Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0438Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 173
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  006/005-006/005-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/35