:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0634Z from Region 3590 (N18W01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 24/1621Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/1952Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
24/1932Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (27
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 179
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  015/020-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/40/20