:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/0316Z from Region 3602 (N19E29). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (05 Mar) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (06 Mar,
07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 04/0613Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 03/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
03/2206Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    25/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 140
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  020/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10