:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 30 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0114Z from Region 3654 (S07W63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (01 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on day two (02 May) and expected to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day three (03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 29/2235Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 30/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/2033Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    55/45/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 130
Predicted   01 May-03 May 140/136/132
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  014/018-016/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/40