:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/0601Z from Region 3663 (N26W31). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07
May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 05/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
05/2021Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 177
Predicted   06 May-08 May 180/185/190
90 Day Mean        05 May 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  024/035-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           40/10/10
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    79/40/35