:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0804Z from Region 3685 (S13E64). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 16/0528Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 16/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/0656Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 16/1115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 602 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     25/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 207
Predicted   17 May-19 May 200/190/180
90 Day Mean        16 May 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  019/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  013/015-008/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/50