:Product: 0602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0850Z from Region 3697 (S18E07). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04
Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 02/0727Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1934Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (04 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jun).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 180
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 180/185/185
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  006/005-012/018-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/30
Minor Storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/60/40