:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1518Z from Region 3719 (S13E55). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 527 km/s at 19/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/0624Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Jun, 23
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 203
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 205/210/200
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  008/010-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/30