:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/1350Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09
Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/0823Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (10
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 303
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 270/280/275
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 196

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  006/006-020/032-029/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/65/65