:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/2358Z from Region 3780 (S11W20). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14
Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 12/0738Z. Total
IMF reached 23 nT at 11/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -20 nT at 12/1017Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 272
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 285/270/270
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  069/126
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  028/040-012/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           45/05/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    80/30/25