:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/1343Z from Region 3813 (S22E58). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04
Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 02/0442Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/1821Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 02/1545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 294 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (04 Sep). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 238
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 240/245/250
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 212

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  007/008-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/10
Minor Storm           05/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/35/15