:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
12/0943Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 12/1714Z. Total IMF
reached 29 nT at 12/1305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 12/1306Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 201
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 210/210/205
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 217

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  040/070
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  023/035-017/025-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/60/45