:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
10/2230Z from Region 3842 (S13W0*). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13
Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 11/1149Z. Total
IMF reached 45 nT at 10/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -45 nT at 10/2200Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 93 pfu at 10/2125Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 485 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Oct,
13 Oct, 14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 214
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 215/215/212
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  050/155
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  070/128
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  020/030-011/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/35/35