:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 19 1825 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
18/1938Z from Region 3854 (S10W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 18/1721Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 18/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
18/1530Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1,180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20
Oct, 21 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 165
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 165/160/165
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  012/015-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30