:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/1211Z from Region 3867 (S15E18). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (23 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 341 km/s at 22/1029Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1421Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 290 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    50/60/60
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 176
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  008/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/15