:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
31/2120Z from Region 3878 (N16E23). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03
Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 31/2226Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/2108Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15 pfu at 01/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     50/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 256
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 260/250/240
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  006/008-012/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/45