:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar events of the period were a pair of M1 events
observed at 15/0146Z and 15/1218, respectively from Region 3893
(S19E34). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 15/0053Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 14/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
15/0022Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 379 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 149
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 213

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  009/010-009/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/50